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Fixed vs Variable Rate Mortgages: How to Choose in 2026
A rigorous comparison of 30-yr fixed (6.8%) vs ARM (6.1%) — break-even analysis, cap structures, and when each wins based on your time horizon in a high-rate 2026 environment.
Read analysisRegulatory Impact on Mortgages: Dodd-Frank, CFPB, FHFA & QM Rule
How the post-2008 regulatory framework shapes every mortgage — QM safe harbor, ATR ability-to-repay rules, LLPA pricing by credit score, Basel III capital effects, and 2026 GSE conservatorship exit debate.
Read analysisMortgage-Backed Securities: How Mortgages Become Bonds
$12T MBS market — how Fannie, Freddie, and Ginnie Mae securitize loans and issue agency bonds. Why MBS spreads explain the gap between Fed cuts and mortgage rate relief, and how QT keeps spreads elevated.
Read analysisMortgage Rate Forecasting 2026–2027: Fed Cuts vs MBS Spreads
30-year fixed at 6.8% in March 2026 — base case projects 6.2% by Q4 2026 and 5.8% by 2027. Why Fed cuts don't equal mortgage relief, the role of MBS spreads, and when to lock vs float.
Read analysisReal Estate Market Cycles: Pattern Recognition & Timing 2026
The four phases — recovery, expansion, hypersupply, recession — and where 2026 sits in the current late-expansion cycle. Historical analogues from the 1989 S&L crisis to the 2006 GFC crash, projected peak 2028.
Read analysisHousing Price Trends 2026: Supply Constraints & Affordability Crisis
US median home price $420K with only 3.2 months supply — the lock-in effect trapping 30M+ sellers with sub-3% mortgages, regional dynamics from Silicon Valley ($1.6M) to Detroit ($215K), and 2027 outlook.
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